Thesis mode: a claim about the future
You call what will happen. Time does the deciding.
A thesis is a claim about the future. You call what will happen, set a deadline, and then the world does the deciding — nobody has to report anything for it to be settled.
What you set
- The thesis. What will be true by the deadline.
- The deadline. When it will be clear.
- The debt of honour. What the loser owes.
Gathering evidence
Until the deadline both sides can add anything that supports their reading — articles, screenshots, photos, notes. It is worth adding evidence as you go rather than hunting for it on the last day.
At the deadline
What actually happened decides. If you both read the outcome the same way, it is settled between you. If you read it differently, the AI referee looks at the thesis and the submitted evidence — see How a challenge is decided.
A thesis can be public
Public theses can be followed by others in the Arena. That is where a call gets an audience — and where the settling gets seen too. See Public challenges.
Write it so it can be settled
"Interest rates will move" is not a thesis; "the base rate will be lower on 1 December than today" is. If two reasonable people could disagree about whether it came true, the wording is not finished.
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